Looking at the ESPN FPI game-by-game projections for Louisville football's schedule ahead of Week 2
Michael McCammon
Things can change a lot in a week and such is the case, especially in the ACC, with the latest update in ESPN's Football Power Index. Louisville rose eight spots in the latest ratings to sit at No. 13 overall and second in the ACC.
Week 0 saw Georgia Tech defeat Florida State to begin a shakeup within the ACC that continued into Week 1. Out of conference games in Week 1 were impactful as Clemson's blowout loss to Georgia and Virginia Tech falling in overtime at Vanderbilt had impacts in how the FPI views the league following the weekend's action. Similarly, Miami's dominating win at Florida pushed the Hurricanes to the top of the league's FPI standings, followed by Louisville and Florida State.
The metric also upped Louisville's chances of making the 12-team College Football Playoff to 34.7%, which is only bested by nine other programs. Miami sits just above the Cards at 42.8%, with future UofL opponent Notre Dame getting a 70% chance of making the playoff.
Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Ohio State and Penn State to the updated FPI.
So, what exactly is the ESPN FPI?
FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can't be done by evaluating teams' records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules. Both of these situations are reflected in the game- and season-level projections.
It is important to note what FPI is not -- FPI is not a playoff predictor, and it is not designed to identify the four teams most deserving of making the College Football Playoff. ESPN has other metrics, including Strength of Record, that can be used to identify the most deserving teams.
The latest FPI ratings also flipped for the forecast for Louisville's game at Clemson, now favoring the Cardinals to win the game set for the first weekend in November.
Continue to scroll for the game-by-game projections for the 2024 schedule.
OVERALL FPI METRICS
FPI Score: 14.8 (Last Week: 10.0)
FPI Rank: 13 (LW: 21)
Projected W-L: 8.9-3.5 (LW: 7.8-4.4)
Chances of Winning Six Games: 95.8% (LW: 86.3%)
Chances of Winning Conference: 26.3% (LW: 13.7%)
Chances of Reaching Playoff: 34.7% (LW: 18.4%)
Chances of Making Nat'l Championship: 4.8% (LW: 1.9%)
Chances of Winning Nat'l Championship: 1.8% (LW: 0.7%)
ESPN FPI ACC RANKINGS
While the FPI places Miami at the top of the ACC after Week 1, the model actually likes Louisville slightly better to win the conference. It gives the Cardinals a 26.3% chance of winning the ACC, closely followed by the Hurricanes at 24.6%.
Don't miss any of the season's action by subscribing to Cardinal Authority today. Click here for subscription options.
Date: Saturday, August 31
Opponent: Austin Peay
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 97.3% Louisville win (LW: 97.2)
OUTCOME: Louisville 62 Austin Peay 0
Current Record: 0-1
Louisville cruised easily in its season opener, defeating Austing Peay, 62-0.
With the win, UofL is now 1-0 all-time against the Governors.
In 2023, the Governors finished the season ranked among the FCS Top 25 with a 9-3 record. Austin Peay won the United Athletic Conference title, but fell in its first NCAA tournament match to Chattanooga.
In the preseason conference coaches poll, Austin Peay was picked to finish fifth in the UAC this season.
Up Next for Austin Peay: Sept. 7 vs Southern Illinois
Date: Saturday, September 7
Opponent: Jacksonville State
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 96.9% Louisville win (LW: 88.6)
FPI Rank: No. 120 (-27)
Current Record: 0-1
Jacksonville State lost its season opener at home to Coastal Carolina, 55-27.
This will be the first-ever meeting between the two programs.
A member of Conference USA, Jacksonville State is coming off a 9-4 season that it capped with an overtime win over Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl.
The C-USA media preseason poll projects a third-place finish Jacksonville State this fall, trailing Liberty and Western Kentucky.
Up Next for Jacksonville State: Sept. 7 at Louisville
Date: Saturday, September 21
Opponent: Georgia Tech
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 74.5% Louisville win (LW: 68.4)
Current Record: 2-0
FPI Rank: No. 34 (+3)
Georgia Tech won a second straight to begin the season with a 35-12 home victory over Georgia State.
The Yellow Jackets opened its season during Week 0 with a stunning upset win over No. 10 Florida State in Dublin, Ireland. The Yellow Jackets jumped 17 spots in the ESPN FPI following the victory.
This season's meeting marks just the fourth meeting between the two conference mates, with Georgia Tech holding a 2-1 series led.
Louisville opened the 2023 season and the Jeff Brohm era against Georgia Tech as part of the Aflac Kickoff in Atlanta. The Cardinals outscored the Tech 26-6 in the second half to overcome a 15-point halftime deficit for a 39-34 victory.
The Yellow Jackets finished last season 7-6, including a Gasparilla Bowl victory over UCF.
The ACC media preseason poll projected Georgia Tech to finish 9th in the league standings this season.
Up Next for Georgia Tech: Sept. 7 at Syracuse
Date: Saturday, September 28
Opponent: Notre Dame
Location: Notre Dame Stadium
Projection: 69.2% Notre Dame win (LW: 75.9)
FPI Rank: No. 6 (+1)
Current Record: 1-0
The Irish opened the season with a 23-13 win at Texas A&M.
ESPN FPI projects that Louisville will collect its first loss of the season at Notre Dame.
This marks the fifth meeting between the two programs. The series is split 2-2. Louisville is 1-1 at Notre Dame Stadium.
The Cardinals won convincingly against the Irish last season, winning 33-20. The defense forced five turnovers and held the Irish ground game to just 44 yards. That win lifted the Cardinals to 6-0 on the season.
The Irish finished 2023 at 10-3, including a win over Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.
Up Next for Notre Dame: Sept. 7 vs Northern Illinois
Date: Saturday, October 5
Opponent: SMU
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 71.7% Louisville win (LW: 62.9)
FPI Rank: No. 32 (-2)
Current Record: 2-0
SMU downed Houston Christian 59-7 last weekend.
The Mustangs join Cal and Stanford as new ACC members this season.
SMU is 2-0 all-time against Louisville, winning games in 1983 and 1984.
SMU is coming off an 11-3 season, which included a win over Tulane in the AAC Championship. The Mustangs season finished with a loss to Boston College in the Fenway Bowl.
The Mustangs were picked to finish seventh in the ACC this season.
Up Next for SMU: Sept. 6 vs BYU
Date: Saturday, October 12
Opponent: Virginia
Location: Scott Stadium
Projection: 84.5% Louisville win (LW: 74.3)
FPI Rank: No. 78 (-6)
Current Record: 1-0
Virginia opened the season with a home win over Richmond. The Cavaliers begin ACC play this weekend.
The Cardinals are 7-5 all-time against Virginia, including wins in the last two meetings. UofL downed UVA 31-24 last season.
Virginia finished the 2023 season at 3-9.
The Cavaliers were picked to finish 16th in the 17-team ACC this season.
Up Next for Virginia: Sept. 7 at Wake Forest
Date: Saturday, October 19
Opponent: Miami
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 53.5% Louisville win (LW: 56.6)
FPI Rank: No. 12 (+11)
Current Record: 1-0
Miami opened the season with a 41-17 win at Florida.
The Hurricanes added highly-desired transfer quarterback Cam Ward to its veteran roster creating another round of preseason buzz. Miami sits at No. 19 in both major preseason polls and were projected to finish third (with 17 first-place votes) in the ACC media poll.
Miami leads the series against Louisville, 11-4-1. UofL's four wins have come during the last six meetings, including a 38-31 road victory last fall.
The Hurricanes are coming off a 7-6 season that was capped with a loss to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl.
Up Next for Miami: Sept. 7 vs Florida A&M
Date: Friday, October 25
Opponent: Boston College
Location: Alumni Stadium
Projection: 79.9% Louisville win (LW: 67.7)
FPI Rank: No. 60 (-2)
Louisville enters the contest 9-7 all-time against Boston College, including a 56-28 home win last season. UofL has lost three straight as the road team in the series.
Bill O'Brien begins his first season with the program and he returns a veteran squad. O'Brien spent time as a head coach at Penn State and with the NFL's Houston Texans.
The Eagles finished 2023 at 7-6, including a win over SMU in the Fenway Bowl.
ACC media picked Boston College to finish 14th in its preseason poll.
Up Next for Boston College: Sept. 2 at Florida State
Date: Saturday, November 2
Opponent: Clemson
Location: Memorial Stadium
Projection: 55.8% Louisville win (LW: 63.7 Clemson win)
FPI Rank: No. 23 (-9)
Current Record: 0-1
Clemson lost to No. 1 Georgia, 34-3, in the Aflac Kickoff.
This early November meeting is likely to prove significant in which programs reach the ACC Championship in December.
Following a 9-4 season, including a 4-4 mark in the ACC, Clemson is seeking to bounce back into the top of the league race.
Louisville continues to seek its first win in the series. Clemson is 8-0 all-time against the Cardinals.
The Tigers were picked to finish second in the ACC race this fall, trailing only defending champ Florida State. Clemson received 55 first-place votes in the preseason poll.
Up Next for Clemson: Sept. 7 vs Appalachian State
Date: Saturday, November 16
Opponent: Stanford
Location: Stanford Stadium
Projection: 78.6% Louisville win (LW: 64.4)
FPI Rank: No. 72 (-13)
Current Record: 0-1
Louisville's first-ever meeting against Stanford will be a lengthy road trip. The Cardinals face the Cardinal in mid-November that the ESPN FPI has going in Louisville's favor.
Stanford finished 2023 at 3-9 and the projections are great for 2024. The ACC media picked Stanford to finish last in the 17-team ACC this season, its first in the league.
Head coach Troy Taylor, beginning his second season with the program, is still looking for his first home win after going 0-7 at Stanford Stadium last fall.
Up Next for Stanford: Sept. 7 vs Cal Poly
Date: Saturday, November 23
Opponent: Pittsburgh
Location: L&N Stadium
Projection: 80.9% Louisville win (LW: 75.1)
FPI Rank: No. 44 (+10)
Current Record: 1-0
Pitt won its season opener over Kent State, 55-24.
Pittsburgh won just three games last season, but one of those was an ugly loss for Louisville. The Cardinals committed multiple turnovers and were sacked four times in a 38-21 loss at Pittsburgh last fall.
The Panthers lead the all-time series 11-9. This game will be just the second time Pitt has visited UofL since both became members of the ACC.
The ACC media project Pitt to finish 13th in the league standings.
Up Next for Pittsburgh: Sept. 7 at Cincinnati
Date: Saturday, November 30
Opponent: Kentucky
Location: Kroger Field
Projection: 61.7% Louisville win (LW: 55.7)
FPI Rank: No. 34
Current Record: 1-0
Kentucky opened the season with a 31-0 home win over Southern Miss.
Louisville has dropped five straight to rival Kentucky, including a 38-31 home loss last season, but the ESPN FPI currently gives the slight nod to Cardinals.
Kentucky leads the all-time series 20-15.
UK finished 2023 at 7-6, including a loss to Clemson in the Gator Bowl.
SEC media projected Kentucky to finish 11th in the 16-team league this season.
Up Next for Kentucky: Sept. 7 vs South Carolina
Cardinal Authority Newsletter
The Cardinal Authority Newsletter is a free service that helps keep site visitors and members up to date with the latest headlines and breaking news.
A completely free service, the newsletter is quick and easy to signup for.
Click HEREto signup today!
All the news from our team of contributors, plus national and regional content on UofL recruiting efforts, team developments, Cards in the pros and of course, breaking news, will be delivered directly to your email inbox. Everything Louisville is here!
Again, it's simple to sign up and just as simple to discontinue.
ClickHERE for the Cardinal Authority Newsletter.
